IMPACT OF SPACE WEATHER EVENTS ON THE  IONOSPHERIC PROPAGATION FACTOR M(3000)F2

Olaoye Boluwatife Samuel

Published November 11, 2026 · Version v1, November 11, 2026 · DOI 10.66977/xsci.2611.001j

Ionospheric Physics, Astrophysics

Abstract

This study investigates the effects of geomagnetic storms on the ionospheric

propagation factor M(3000) using historical space weather data and ionosonde

measurements. The ionosphere plays a critical role in radio signal transmission and

satellite communication, and M(3000), which represents the maximum usable

frequency for a 3000 km transmission path, is a key parameter for assessing

propagation quality. Geomagnetic storms, driven by interactions between solar wind

and Earth's magnetic field, are known to alter ionospheric electron density and

composition, thereby influencing the refractive index of the ionosphere and causing

significant variability in M(3000). Despite considerable research on space weather

and ionospheric dynamics, the correlation between geomagnetic storm intensity and

M(3000) variability remains poorly quantified, posing challenges for the

development of accurate forecasting models. This research seeks to address that gap

by characterizing the behavior of M(3000) under quiet geomagnetic conditions,

evaluating the effect of geomagnetic storms on M(3000), and examining the

relationship between M(3000) and relevant geomagnetic indices, including Kp, Dst,

and BZ(GSE). A statistical methodology is applied to historical datasets to quantify

the graphical relationship between storm intensity and M(3000) fluctuations. The

study is limited to a selected region and does not extend to other space weather

phenomena such as solar flares, focusing instead specifically on geomagnetic storm

effects. Findings from this research are expected to enhance understanding of the

physical mechanisms linking geomagnetic activity to ionospheric propagation

behavior, and to support the development of more reliable forecasting tools for

communication and navigation systems. Ultimately, the study contributes to the

broader field of space physics by improving knowledge of the complex interactions

among the solar wind, Earth's magnetic field, and the ionosphere.